Expert Summaries
Last Update: 02.28.14
The October 19, 2012 edition of the Atascadero News has my column "Who's An Expert?" (PDF) about who is an expert in any given field and who is not. In particular, I mention several sources where readers without an extensive scientific background can obtain summaries of the most reliable and unbiased information about climate change.
I haven’t tried to count the times I’ve heard the phrase “so-called experts”. But it’s a lot and never complimentary. Who are these so-called experts? Here’s a working definition: “A so-called expert is someone who claims to know more than I do, and whose opinion I strongly disagree with.”
But, seriously folks … Who should we trust for reliable information? Where do we find it?
This is extremely important when it comes to complex technical subjects involving many years of data collection, analysis and peer review by many experts on the subject. A vitally important challenge is how to present such information that the general public can read and understand, as well as utilize it in our nation's public educational processes.
In the case of climate science, professional groups, such as the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, or the National Academy of Sciences publish non-technical summaries. These summaries provide an excellent overview of exhaustive research and collective analysis of many highly trained and experienced "experts" in their fields.
Here are links to some of those summaries together with brief backgrounds concerning some of these groups.
--------------------
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
The National Academy of Sciences non-profit organization was signed into being by President Abraham Lincoln on March 3, 1863. As mandated in its Act of Incorporation, the Academy has, since 1863, served to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science or art" whenever called upon to do so by any department of the government. It has published many reports dealing with climate change through the research branch of the NAS called the National Research Council (NRC). These reports are put together by panels of scientists who are active in climate science research.
The free, 28-page booklet Understanding and Responding to Climate Change, published in 2008, is probably the most useful one for the general public.
More recently, the National Research Council produced a series of reports available on-line at America’s Climate Choices. They conclude:
"Most of the recent warming can be attributed to fossil fuel burning and other human activities that release carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."
Most of the additional material below refers specifically to U.S. organizations, but the counterpart to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in the United Kingdom's The Royal Society. They have also produced an excellent short booklet in September 2010 similar to the one from the NAS/NRC, Climate Change: A Summary of the Science. Here is an excerpt:
"There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity…the risks associated with some of these changes are substantial. It is important that decision makers have access to climates science of the highest quality."
UPDATE 02/28/14: The information above has been updated by a new report "Climate Change: Evidence and Causes", a joint effort of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the British Royal Society. The booklet answers 20 of the most commonly asked questions about climate change and then gives a short summary of the basic science. This booklet is a non-technical presentation able to be understood without any scientific background. A PDF version can be downloaded HERE for free.
--------------------
American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society promotes the development and dissemination of information and education on atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences and the advancement of their professional applications.
Their most recent statement on climate change issued in August 2012 Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society is very readable and I recommend it. Here is a brief excerpt:
"This statement provides a brief overview of how and why global climate has changed over the past century and will continue to change in the future. It is based on the peer-reviewed scientific literature and is consistent with the vast weight of current scientific … Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal, according to many different kinds of evidence. Observations show increases in globally averaged air and ocean temperatures, as well as widespread melting of snow and ice and rising globally averaged sea level."
For a list containing links to, and excerpts from, these and many other scientific groups compiled by the Union of Concerned Scientists, see Scientific Consensus on Global Warming. Here are some excerpts:
Statement from 18 U.S. Scientific Associations contained in a letter to U.S. Senators:
"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science. Moreover, there is strong evidence that ongoing climate change will have broad impacts on society, including the global economy and on the environment."
Full Statement October 2009, PDF
The American Geophysical Union:
"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons — are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century."
Full Statement Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007
The American Physical Society:
"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now."
Full Statement November 2007, PDF
The American Association for the Advancement of Science:
"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shifts in species ranges, and more. The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now."
Full Statement December 2006, PDF
The Geological Society of America:
"The Geological Society of America (GSA) supports the scientific conclusions that Earth’s climate is changing; the climate changes are due in part to human activities; and the probable consequences of the climate changes will be significant and blind to geopolitical boundaries."
Full Statement Revised April 2010
The American Chemical Society:
"There is now general agreement among scientific experts that the recent warming trend is real (and particularly strong within the past 20 years), that most of the observed warming is likely due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and that climate change could have serious adverse effects by the end of this century."
Full Statement 2010
--------------------
The U.S. Climate Change Research Program
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."
Numerous reports can be downloaded from Publications and Assessment Reports.
Their bottom line:
"Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases."
--------------------
In Conclusion
All of the statements above, except the one from The Royal Society, refer to U.S. organizations. However the scientific consensus on the reality of climate change and the significant role that human activities are playing in it is international in scope. Statements in the same vein as those from the U.S. NAS and The Royal Society have been made by the National Academies of Science of many other nations as well as a joint statement from the National Science Academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States:
G8+5 Academies’ Joint Statement: Climate Change and the Transformation of Energy Technologies for a Low Carbon Future PDF
These are just a few of the statements from scientific organizations, several of them specifically involving experts who are actively publishing peer-reviewed articles in the area of climate science.
NOT among organizations or individuals having such expertise are Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, the editors of The Wall Street Journal and Anthony Watts!
There are, of course, individual climate scientists who dissent from the statements presented above, but they are in the very small minority.
Numerous surveys have shown that among climate scientists who are actively doing and publishing research on climate science, about 97% endorse the positions summarized above. For example, see:
Expert Credibility in Climate Change
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Finally, my Atascadero News column closes by mentioning the disinformation campaign funded by the tobacco companies to counter warnings about the health risks of smoking, just as the fossil fuel industries have been doing concerning climate change. This, and similar campaigns aimed at discrediting the scientific consensus on various issues, are documented in a book that I highly recommend:
Merchants of Doubt
by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway
Bloomsbury Press, 2010
I haven’t tried to count the times I’ve heard the phrase “so-called experts”. But it’s a lot and never complimentary. Who are these so-called experts? Here’s a working definition: “A so-called expert is someone who claims to know more than I do, and whose opinion I strongly disagree with.”
But, seriously folks … Who should we trust for reliable information? Where do we find it?
This is extremely important when it comes to complex technical subjects involving many years of data collection, analysis and peer review by many experts on the subject. A vitally important challenge is how to present such information that the general public can read and understand, as well as utilize it in our nation's public educational processes.
In the case of climate science, professional groups, such as the American Meteorological Society, the American Geophysical Union, or the National Academy of Sciences publish non-technical summaries. These summaries provide an excellent overview of exhaustive research and collective analysis of many highly trained and experienced "experts" in their fields.
Here are links to some of those summaries together with brief backgrounds concerning some of these groups.
--------------------
National Academy of Sciences (NAS)
The National Academy of Sciences non-profit organization was signed into being by President Abraham Lincoln on March 3, 1863. As mandated in its Act of Incorporation, the Academy has, since 1863, served to "investigate, examine, experiment, and report upon any subject of science or art" whenever called upon to do so by any department of the government. It has published many reports dealing with climate change through the research branch of the NAS called the National Research Council (NRC). These reports are put together by panels of scientists who are active in climate science research.
The free, 28-page booklet Understanding and Responding to Climate Change, published in 2008, is probably the most useful one for the general public.
More recently, the National Research Council produced a series of reports available on-line at America’s Climate Choices. They conclude:
"Most of the recent warming can be attributed to fossil fuel burning and other human activities that release carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere."
Most of the additional material below refers specifically to U.S. organizations, but the counterpart to the U.S. National Academy of Sciences in the United Kingdom's The Royal Society. They have also produced an excellent short booklet in September 2010 similar to the one from the NAS/NRC, Climate Change: A Summary of the Science. Here is an excerpt:
"There is strong evidence that the warming of the Earth over the last half-century has been caused largely by human activity…the risks associated with some of these changes are substantial. It is important that decision makers have access to climates science of the highest quality."
UPDATE 02/28/14: The information above has been updated by a new report "Climate Change: Evidence and Causes", a joint effort of the U.S. National Academy of Sciences and the British Royal Society. The booklet answers 20 of the most commonly asked questions about climate change and then gives a short summary of the basic science. This booklet is a non-technical presentation able to be understood without any scientific background. A PDF version can be downloaded HERE for free.
--------------------
American Meteorological Society
The American Meteorological Society promotes the development and dissemination of information and education on atmospheric and related oceanic and hydrologic sciences and the advancement of their professional applications.
Their most recent statement on climate change issued in August 2012 Climate Change: An Information Statement of the American Meteorological Society is very readable and I recommend it. Here is a brief excerpt:
"This statement provides a brief overview of how and why global climate has changed over the past century and will continue to change in the future. It is based on the peer-reviewed scientific literature and is consistent with the vast weight of current scientific … Warming of the climate system now is unequivocal, according to many different kinds of evidence. Observations show increases in globally averaged air and ocean temperatures, as well as widespread melting of snow and ice and rising globally averaged sea level."
For a list containing links to, and excerpts from, these and many other scientific groups compiled by the Union of Concerned Scientists, see Scientific Consensus on Global Warming. Here are some excerpts:
Statement from 18 U.S. Scientific Associations contained in a letter to U.S. Senators:
"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science. Moreover, there is strong evidence that ongoing climate change will have broad impacts on society, including the global economy and on the environment."
Full Statement October 2009, PDF
The American Geophysical Union:
"The Earth's climate is now clearly out of balance and is warming. Many components of the climate system—including the temperatures of the atmosphere, land and ocean, the extent of sea ice and mountain glaciers, the sea level, the distribution of precipitation, and the length of seasons — are now changing at rates and in patterns that are not natural and are best explained by the increased atmospheric abundances of greenhouse gases and aerosols generated by human activity during the 20th century."
Full Statement Revised and Reaffirmed December 2007
The American Physical Society:
"The evidence is incontrovertible: Global warming is occurring. If no mitigating actions are taken, significant disruptions in the Earth’s physical and ecological systems, social systems, security and human health are likely to occur. We must reduce emissions of greenhouse gases beginning now."
Full Statement November 2007, PDF
The American Association for the Advancement of Science:
"The scientific evidence is clear: global climate change caused by human activities is occurring now, and it is a growing threat to society. Accumulating data from across the globe reveal a wide array of effects: rapidly melting glaciers, destabilization of major ice sheets, increases in extreme weather, rising sea level, shifts in species ranges, and more. The pace of change and the evidence of harm have increased markedly over the last five years. The time to control greenhouse gas emissions is now."
Full Statement December 2006, PDF
The Geological Society of America:
"The Geological Society of America (GSA) supports the scientific conclusions that Earth’s climate is changing; the climate changes are due in part to human activities; and the probable consequences of the climate changes will be significant and blind to geopolitical boundaries."
Full Statement Revised April 2010
The American Chemical Society:
"There is now general agreement among scientific experts that the recent warming trend is real (and particularly strong within the past 20 years), that most of the observed warming is likely due to increased atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, and that climate change could have serious adverse effects by the end of this century."
Full Statement 2010
--------------------
The U.S. Climate Change Research Program
The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) coordinates and integrates federal research on changes in the global environment and their implications for society. The USGCRP began as a presidential initiative in 1989 and was mandated by Congress in the Global Change Research Act of 1990, which called for "a comprehensive and integrated United States research program which will assist the Nation and the world to understand, assess, predict, and respond to human-induced and natural processes of global change."
Numerous reports can be downloaded from Publications and Assessment Reports.
Their bottom line:
"Global warming is unequivocal and primarily human-induced. Global temperature has increased over the past 50 years. This observed increase is due primarily to human-induced emissions of heat-trapping gases."
--------------------
In Conclusion
All of the statements above, except the one from The Royal Society, refer to U.S. organizations. However the scientific consensus on the reality of climate change and the significant role that human activities are playing in it is international in scope. Statements in the same vein as those from the U.S. NAS and The Royal Society have been made by the National Academies of Science of many other nations as well as a joint statement from the National Science Academies of Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Russia, South Africa, United Kingdom and the United States:
G8+5 Academies’ Joint Statement: Climate Change and the Transformation of Energy Technologies for a Low Carbon Future PDF
These are just a few of the statements from scientific organizations, several of them specifically involving experts who are actively publishing peer-reviewed articles in the area of climate science.
NOT among organizations or individuals having such expertise are Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, the editors of The Wall Street Journal and Anthony Watts!
There are, of course, individual climate scientists who dissent from the statements presented above, but they are in the very small minority.
Numerous surveys have shown that among climate scientists who are actively doing and publishing research on climate science, about 97% endorse the positions summarized above. For example, see:
Expert Credibility in Climate Change
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Finally, my Atascadero News column closes by mentioning the disinformation campaign funded by the tobacco companies to counter warnings about the health risks of smoking, just as the fossil fuel industries have been doing concerning climate change. This, and similar campaigns aimed at discrediting the scientific consensus on various issues, are documented in a book that I highly recommend:
Merchants of Doubt
by Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway
Bloomsbury Press, 2010